
Introduction
Hon. Robert Garcia................................................ 337
Increasing Reliance on the Decennial Census
John G. Keane..........................................................341
Historical Perspectives on the Decennial Census
Theodore G. Clemence.........................................................355
Plans For and Issues Facing the 1990 Decennial Census
Peter A. Bounpane............................................................. 369
Drawing the Lines-By the Numbers:
The Statistical Foundations of the Electoral Process
Penelope E. Harvison, Robert C. Speaker,
and
Marshall L. Turner, Jr....................................................... 389
Census Confidentiality: Then and Now
Sherry L. Courtland........................................................ 407
Making Decennial Census Data Available
Paul T. Zeisset..................................................419
The Challenge of Census Taking in Developing Countries
Robert R. Bair and Barbara Boyle Torrey ................................. 433
Contributors ...........................................................453
Forthcoming......................................................... 455
Index for Volume 2 ............................................... 457
Increasing Reliance on the Decennial Census
JOHN G. KEANE
Comparatively few people realize the scope and significance of the Census Bureau and its most important program--the decennial census. Only when a nation is denied its population census is that nation likely to understand the true worth of such a census. Sprinkled with examples, this article provides a descriptive perspective on the decennial census and spans the major uses of decennial data.
A brief review of the American census begins with the framers of the Constitution assembled in Philadelphia in 1787. When the delegates agreed on State representation in the Senate and proportional representation in the House, they wrote a census clause into the Constitution to ensure periodic adjustments. During the nineteenth century, the volume of census questions increased dramatically, provoking criticisms of census accuracy and calls for a permanent Census Bureau, established in 1902. In recent times, major innovations in census work have improved accuracy and timeliness, along with more popular interest in the enumeration. For the 1980 census, many people wanted to help set the stage for the census, and most people want to be counted, continuing the best traditions of 200 years.
Planning for the 1990 census has been underway for some time and many important decisions must be made in the near future. In making these decisions, the Census Bureau will be guided by six criteria or goals, which are described in this article. The article also discusses current Census Bureau thinking in several specific areas: (1) automation, which is the key to completing the census in a timely manner; (2) basic methodology, which will likely be-possibly with modifications-the mail-out/mail- back method used in the 1980 census; and (3) content, where the Census Bureau's challenge is to balance the needs for data against the need to keep questionnaire length reasonable. Other issues discussed are personnel management, outreach and publicity, and adjustment and coverage improvement. The article also describes the process the Census Bureau is using to get ideas to plan the census.
T'he Constitution establishes that the apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives shall be based upon an enumeration of the population. Every 10 years, the Bureau of the Census conducts that enumeration, and using the Method of Equal Proportions designated by the Congress, furnishes to the President the number of Representatives to which each state is entitled. "Rules of residence" have been developed to determine who should be counted and where persons should be counted in the census. Following the 1970 census, because of the Supreme Cotul's decisions requiring population equality in districts used for electoral purposes, census data became vital to the redistricting processes carried out by the individual states. The Congress enacted Public Law 94-171 which authorized the Bureau of the Census to make special preparations for the provision of redistricting data needed by the 50 states. The 1980 program established by the Census Bureau enabled state redistricting to be accomplished far more smoothly than in the 1970s. The Census Bureau is already working with the states on its 1990 program, an essential element of which is based upon its plan to provide block data for the entire country.
The Census Bureau protects the confidentiality of census records with fervent adherence to the law and with sensitivity to public opinion. Within this framework, the Bureau uses advanced technology to store, transmit, and tabulate data. Because of the responsible manner in which the Bureau applies the new technology, no history of computer abuses exists in connection with the decennial censuses. Our intent in planning the upcoming census is to keep that record intact. This article describes how the agency assures the confidentiality of census information and what it knows about the public's perception of census confidentiality.
Data from the 1980 census were published in printed reports, computer tape files, and microfiche. This article discusses the various attributes of these media, how they came into their current forms, and the mechanisms in place to help these products reach the people who need them. The article closes with some speculations as to what may be in store for users of data from the 1990 census.
Census taking is a special challenge in the developing countries of the world. The collection of census data varies considerably depending on the conditions of the country. Data processing, however, requires similar technologies around the world. Fortunately, new and inexpensive technologies being developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and discussed in this article will help many third world countries meet these challenges in the 1990s.
Robert R. Bair is Senior ADP Management Consultant under contract with the office of the Assistant Director for International Programs. He has been a Census Bureau employee for many years and has extensive experience designing and implementing computer information systems for statistical offices in developing countries.